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Forecasting spend in 2H 2024 and beyond (my predictions)

In September of last year, we hosted a CMO roundtable and the topic of 2024 marketing budget came up in the midst of mass marketing layoffs across the tech sector.


One CMO said that his marketing dollars weren't being cut, they were being diverted into R&D as their company looked to infuse more AI into their product suite. He said he was pretty confident that was happening across many large companies as they dialed back the marketing dollars, worked on the product updates through Q4 and Q1, and his prediction was that we would begin to see marketing re-hiring in mid to late Q2 as the new AI-infused products get ready to hit the market.


He predicted that marketing spend will come back in Q3 2024, hopefully backed by marketing teams who are now resourced to go to market, but perhaps with more emphasis on sales plays and quick-turn sales-first GTM motions that will drive quick revenue in the second half of the year.


I feel like his predictions make sense and are on track. I'm beginning to see more marketing and event roles open up on my LinkedIn feed, and more and more of our Club Ichi Job Search Council participants are landing gigs in shorter times.


But those are my "feelings" - let's get to the facts.


The annual IPA Bellwether report on advertising in the UK was released this week and events are the clear winner in the marketing spend categories.


40% of respondents are increasing budgets in the second half of the year, and the increases are going into events, primarily, with a dip in out of home and larger campaign spend. Market research and audio brand marketing are taking a hit, as well.


Respondents reported that although ad spend is being diverted to events in the second half of 2024, they are forecasting it to return to higher spending rates in early 2025, as everyone is hoping for rate cuts by then to make borrowing money "cheaper" and overall inflation will have hopefully cooled.


Reading these reports drives a bit of optimism, but I'm always curious as to the nature of the budgeting process and decisions here.


It's no secret that costs have skyrocketed for everything from F&B to gratuities to venue fees to transportation to labor. So the research revealing that event budgets are increasing is not actually signaling to me that companies are doing more events.


My interpretation is that companies are seeing quicker and more measurable return on events than they are seeing on out of home marketing, so money is being diverted to cover costs.


Despite the audience acquisition challenges we see with conferences in some industries, all indications are that people DO want to get out and experience things. They are just being more picky about what they experience... meaning it had better be worth their time.


We’re calling 2024 the Year of Adventure: people want to experience new things, explore new places, and live their best lives. Last summer’s “get out and try stuff” energy grows even stronger, with 61% of 21- to 35-year-olds (and 55% of all eventgoers) leaning into their sense of adventure.


People are willing to spend more on experiences, too: nine out of 10 plan to attend the same or more events in 2024, with more than half saying they want to attend more events compared to last year. Seven out of 10 surveyed would rather splurge on an experience over material goods, with the 21- to 35-year-old demographic being 1.4 times more likely to say event spending is a high priority for them.


And when people travel for work, they want to actually see where they're visiting.


This adventure-hungry trend extends to the ‘bleisure’ traveler, who combines work and travel and loves to attend events while exploring the world. In 2024, 65% of survey respondents plan significantly more personal travel, which will incorporate work — a 19% increase from our summer 2023 event trends report.


Thoughtfully investing in event design as costs rise will be the only way to win the battle of attention in a noisy event landscape.


In a B2B environment, events that are closer to sales (mid to bottom of the funnel) will be more important in the 2nd half of the year than large-scale top-of-funnel motions that just drive awareness.


To me, this means that micro events are going to be the belle of the ball in the second half of 2024. Sales dinners, development and retention hospitality experiences, and relationship-building opportunities will be the priority to drive bigger deals faster.


But you'll need to get really creative and really good at it to win the audience acquisition game - customers are being invited to SO MANY micro events now that just another steak dinner isn't going to cut it.


You'll need to craft useful workshops, behind-the-scenes experiences, hands-on activities, think tanks, and more experience and conversation-based programs to really get their attention. Do these around the US in your top sales regions or as side car events alongside large industry conferences.


It will come as no surprise that these are my favorite kind of events to plan, so if you need ideas, give me a shout - or just watch what we're doing in Club Ichi because this is pretty much all we do! :-)


That's a quick look into my crystal ball based on the reports I'm seeing.


I'm excited to hear your thoughts!


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